Mirko Cro Cop Vs. Gonzaga preview's

UFC 70 is almost come (April 21st, 2007) !
Read Michael DiSanto story and watch UFC 70: NATIONS COLLIDE video preview. Find what Dana White (UFC president), Joe Rogan (UFC commentator) and Randy Couture (UFC HW champion) said about Mirko Cro Cop and Gabriel Gonzaga.
(source ufc.com)

UFC 70: Nations Collide video preview

Keys to Victory: Cro Cop vs. Gonzaga

by Michael DiSanto
Unpredictability. That is what makes MMA such an amazing port.

Think about it for a moment. Baseball ends after nine innings, regardless of how many runs the visiting team scores in the top of the third inning. If the home team scores four touchdowns in the first quarter of an NFL game, the visiting team still has three full quarters to make up the deficit. A triple bogey on the opening hole at the US Open is painful, but 71 holes remain to make up for the mistake.

MMA, by contrast, is vastly different.

There is a time limit, but the bout can end at any moment – literally.

One wrong move on the ground. One lapse of concentration on the feet. One slip. Slipping to the left after a punch instead of to the right. Almost anything can forever change the course of a fight. And any fight can end in the blink of an eye.

In other words, nobody truly knows what will unfold once referee “Big” John McCarthy yells, “Let’s get it on!” And that is what makes the sport so great. One bold, daring move by an underdog, and he is suddenly a champion. One wrong move by a division kingpin, and it is back to the masses.

The most recent UFC event underscores that point with thick bold lines. When Matt Serra entered the Octagon at UFC 69, he was more than just a simple underdog. The quintessential journeyman was dismissed by most as a legitimate threat to unseat Georges St-Pierre from the top of the welterweight mountain.

Sportsbooks around the globe pegged St-Pierre between an 8-1 and a 10-1 betting favorite. Anyone carrying a line on Serra winning by knockout undoubtedly doubled or even tripled those odds. After all, in 10 UFC fights, Serra had never stopped an opponent with strikes. In fact, he only owned one Octagon win inside the distance, and that was five years ago.

See also: UFC 70: Nations Collide Schedule Mirko Cro Cop training with Marcio Corletta and Pawel Nastula Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga about his fight with Mirko Cro Cop Mirko Cro Cop to fight Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 70

Nevertheless, it took Serra a mere 3:25 to blast GSP into the realm of “former champions” with rapid fire punches that left everyone, including Serra’s corner, trainers, friends and family, staring with mouth agape, wondering if their eyes had just deceived them.

It was an amazing sight to see. But it was far from an unbelievable one because high-profile upsets occur in the UFC with very real frequency. In fact, UFC 69 featured three upsets in five main card bouts – Serra over GSP, Josh Koscheck shutting out Diego Sanchez and Yushin Okami defeating the highly touted Mike Swick.

The main event at UFC 70 features another apparent one-sided bout as the most fearsome heavyweight striker in the game, Mirko “Cro Cop”, takes on the somewhat unheralded contender, Gabriel Gonzaga. Oddsmakers have already labeled Cro Cop a 6-1 betting favorite, suggesting that Gonzaga has little chance at victory.

But everyone, including this writer, felt the same way about Serra versus GSP. So, do the betting lines really mean anything?

Will Gonzaga follow in Serra’s footsteps and prove yet again that almost anything can happen once the action gets underway inside the Octagon? Or, will Cro Cop step up and establish himself as the rightful challenger to Randy Couture’s heavyweight crown?

Let’s break down each combatant’s keys to victory.

Step to the left, Gonzaga, always to the left

Keep in mind that Gonzaga wants to avoid exchanging strikes with Cro Cop kind of like an antelope with a broken leg wants to avoid stumbling across a hungry lion. Nevertheless, even if he fights the perfect fight, there will likely be times when he is forced to do just that, if only for the briefest of moments.

Gonzaga can help maximize his chances of surviving on the feet by making sure that his lead left foot is always outside of Cro Cop’s lead right foot. Doing that accomplishes two things: it opens a throwing angle to land a lottery-winning right hand, and it positions him to identify and defend the left high kick.

Because Cro Cop stands in a southpaw kickboxing stance, he presents a very difficult target for a conventional fighter. The jab is rendered largely ineffective because Cro Cop can easily pick it off with his own right hand. Left hooks are basically useless, unless Cro Cop fights with his right hand down at his waist – a rare occurrence for the disciplined striker.

Nevertheless, if Gonzaga makes a concerted effort to keep his lead left foot outside Cro Cop’s lead right foot, it sets a great punching angle because it brings him more square to the gap between Cro Cop’s hands. That forces Cro Cop to defend lead rights by either slipping with his upper body, something he isn’t particularly good at, or pawing at the punch with one of his hands. Either way, it increases the odds of Gonzaga landing a right hand bomb.

Moreover, keeping his left foot outside of Cro Cop’s right foot, Gonzaga eliminates the punching angle for Cro Cop’s deadly left cross. And it allows the Brazilian to circle out to his left when he feels pressure, which minimizes the impact of a left high kick.

Fight big in the clinch

One of Cro Cop’s weaknesses (yes, all fighters have them) is that he tends to overreact in the clinch. The former kickboxing champion is so concerned with avoiding the takedown that he focuses his energy on pulling out of a clinch, rather than using knees, elbows or his own judo skills to fight his way out. The net result is that Cro Cop, unlike a Thai Boxing expert like Anderson Silva, is much less dangerous in the clinch than he otherwise is on the feet.

Gonzaga can capitalize on that fact by relying on the clinch as a safe harbor, of sorts. He can initiate clinches early in the fight and use the position as an energy-sapping tactic in the opening round. Cro Cop isn’t known for having the deepest gas tank in the game, so any dents into his conditioning will pay dividends in the second and third rounds because it will create holes in his takedown defense, which is largely predicated on quick sprawls and excellent balance.

The caveat to the above-mentioned key to victory is that Gonzaga must be ultra careful to move out of harm’s way and back to a safe distance the moment Cro Cop pulls out of a clinch. His Croatian opponent loves to immediately plant and throw a left cross or left high kick as soon as he is free. Thus, if Cro Cop pulls away, Gonzaga should quickly roll out to his own left (Cro Cop’s right) with his hands up and reset his attack.

Stay active on the ground to avoid stand ups

Once the fight hits the ground, the advantage swings dramatically in Gonzaga’s favor. He is a Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt under Wander Braga with more than 13 years of training. Cro Cop, by comparison, trains with one of the sport’s true jiu jitsu phenoms, Fabricio Werdum, but he is probably closer in skill to an average purple belt – a far cry below Gonzaga’s level.

Accordingly, there is little doubt that Cro Cop’s game plan following a takedown is to quickly work to closed guard and try to tie up Gonzaga in the hopes of forcing a restart on the feet. If he is unable to do that, Cro Cop’s “Plan B” will be to look for opportunities to stand up during transitions.

Either way, his options are purely defensive because Cro Cop poses no threat to Gonzaga on the ground – none whatsoever. And the longer the fight unfolds there the more desperate Cro Cop will become to find his way back to his feet, which means he will have no choice but to risk getting caught in a submission to avoid losing via a ground-and-pound decision.

So, the key for Gonzaga once (or maybe the better word is “if”) the fight hits the ground is to make sure that he keeps it there. Staying active helps accomplish that goal because it works to eliminate referee-imposed stand ups and gives him a chance to work his much superior submission game.

Above all else, keep your hands high

Fighting Cro Cop on the feet is like wandering into the heart of darkness. It is No Man’s Land for all but the very best. Gonzaga cannot let his concentration slip for even a split second. He must keep his hands up at all times, including his right hand, so that he can try and ward off left high kicks and Cro Cop’s vastly underrated left cross. If Gonzaga lets his hands drop, the next thing that drops will likely be his body to the canvas, as he slips into the realm of the unconscious.

Chop the body and the head will fall

Cro Cop definitely wants to use his fight with Gonzaga to send a message to Randy Couture – a message of intimidation that says, “I’m coming for you.” To do that, he must win by spectacular knockout. Granted, that typically means landing one of his vaunted high kicks. But there is more than one way to skin a cat.

Gonzaga will enter the Octagon on April 21 very wary of Cro Cop’s penchant for knocking out opponents with head kicks. One must assume, therefore, that he has trained extensively over the past several weeks to react quickly to anything that even remotely resembles an incoming high kick.

Cro Cop can actually use that to his advantage.

He can come out early and throw a head kick from a very safe distance – i.e., far enough away so that he can still sprawl if Gonzaga counters by shooting for a takedown. Doing that will play upon Gonzaga’s fears of getting knocked out, further enhancing Gonzaga’s now-conditioned response to raise his arms and cover his head as soon as he notices Cro Cop setting his hips for a kick.

Once Gonzaga raises his arms to avoid what he believes to be an incoming high kick, he will leave the right side of his body exposed. Heath Herring made that exact mistake against Cro Cop when the pair battled four years ago at Pride 26. Cro Cop took advantage by uncorking possibly the most memorable body kick in Pride history, one that crumpled Herring to the canvas like a dropped sack of potatoes.

Cro Cop can crumple Gonzaga in the same fashion if he comes out early and prays upon his opponent’s fear of the left high kick and then fires kicks to the body.

Remain patient and the knockout will come

Gonzaga’s biggest weakness on the feet is that he strongly prefers to counter strike without possessing the technical skills needed to win fights on the feet by counter striking. As a result, he often fights very passively on the feet, allowing his opponent to pick and choose the opportunities to engage.

Cro Cop can sit back, therefore, and patiently pick apart Gonzaga from the outside with vicious leg kicks and stiff jabs. And he can land those shots with little risk of a takedown because he will have sufficient distance to react to Gonzaga’s somewhat plodding takedowns attempts.

Both Cro Cop and Gonzaga know that the Brazilian cannot possibly win a technical striking battle, so Gonzaga will become more and more desperate as Cro Cop lands leg kicks and jabs from the outside. His desperation will lead to ill-advised, sloppy right hands or lunging takedown attempts. Either way, he will be fully exposed to Cro Cop’s arsenal of fight-ending strikes.

Don’t get cocky, maintain your balance

It goes without saying that Cro Cop must not become too overconfident in his standup and forget to defend the takedown. That means he must be mindful of his position inside the Octagon to minimize Gonzaga’s opportunities to trap him against the cage, a situation that would nullify every advantage that Cro Cop brings to the fight.

Cro Cop must keep his weight evenly balanced and avoid shifting his weight too far forward during in-fighting situations to avoid taking a ride to the canvas. In other words, he should maintain a neutral base like that of UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Chuck Liddell, another wicked striker who thrives off of a sprawl-and-brawl style.

If Cro Cop maintains his balance and remains mindful of defending the takedown, this is a fight that he should win.

Then again, that is what everyone said about George St-Pierre versus Matt Serra.